Everything old is new again. These new AI “funds” remind me the applied research that was done in the 2000s with strategy search through genetic programming, startups like Logical Information Machines, even Peter Thiel had a macro hedge fund.
Failed to grasp what collapse data this article applies to. There is for sure a certain amount on individuals that will be able to sense structural changes if they happen to be in the right place at the right time and they have access to the right data and a set of mental models to do so. However there is a random factor at play for all the things that need to be right. There are no seers, only lucky seers.
No need for evidence of net benefits to get mass adoption. We have mass adoption of digital touchpads in cars despite evidence they are not safe. We have widespread adoption of open spaces despite evidence of them not increasing productivity..
You must be 18 in the UK for getting a tattoo, buying alcohol, watching porn, purchasing cigarettes, using a sunbed or being tried as an adult. Why would they lower the voting age to 16?
There was some talk a few years ago in the country where I live to lower the voting age. That talk was mostly driven by the parties that would benefit the most from a younger electorate. It had nothing to do with “democracy”.
I worked many years as a quant. Strategies based in unpublished findings tend to be very profitable. But once that info becomes widely available it is just a matter of time until getting diminished returns. Thus there is a high incentive to not publicise.
We went from CLIs to GUIs to touchscreens and we will see more and more of MCBs, multimodal chatbot, where the interaction is done by text, voice, maybe even other on the future. AI is just the “software” that enables those interfaces, not the interface per se.
In what extent you see the output being incredible?
At appearance the output _seems_ incredible but once one starts pushing for more or requiring consistency for production, it requires a tremendous effort to put in place or it is simply not possible.
I have also a few decades in the field, especially regarding automation of knowledge processes, so genuinely interesting in getting other viewpoints.
No matter how you minimize drawdown from a backward perspective, there is a reasonable chance there will be an event in the future where you will have a 50pct drawdown.
Many of these strategies stopped working in 2008 because the markets became too crowded with players exploring them. Especially the ones that have low drawdowns attract a lot of competition. The writing was already in the wall with the quant bloodbath of 2007.
How certain can we be that these rankings reflect an accurate picture? Rankers seem to be paid customers of Startup Genome, the organization that is providing the rankings.
LLMs get you to average.
LLMs are not good at decision making under uncertainty.