U.S. Birthrates Fall to Record Low(wsj.com)
wsj.com
U.S. Birthrates Fall to Record Low
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-birthrates-fall-to-record-low-11589947260
441 comments
Curious how many people share this opinion, but I think this is extremely good news. I would love to see birth rates drop below replenishment across the globe. We simply don't need billions of humans. We have done, and continue to do major damage to our environment and historically a tiny minority has benefited from the labor of the majority. The people who benefit most from an increasing population are those who exploit people to increase their quality of life in clean sanctuaries while distancing themselves from the effort and waste required to maintain those lifestyles.
Anecdotal: Many folks in my social circles are just less willing to accept the real responsibility of raising a child. We're all late-20-somethings/early 30-somethings and I have the conversation all the time with people who want to wait until things like careers are established, until they have a chance to seriously travel a bit, and most commonly they just want to enjoy a relationship without the stress of kids. Kids are an insanely huge responsibility, and to parent right all of your life priorities change completely.
Also, with religious stresses being almost non-existent in the groups I run in I feel like people aren't jumping into legally-binding marriages which causes the baby thing to be pushed down the road until they find someone they want to forge a lifelong relationship with. I think it's a super good thing when people take their time to find the right relationship for them!
All-in-all I've noticed a big generational gap in thinking on this one because all I hear from tons of older relatives is "sooo when you guys getting married?" ...or even pushing for children before the fact. It feels unnatural and downright weird to field those questions and it's neigh impossible to explain "we're just taking our time to enjoy this thing and not rushing into huge commitments with marriage or kids..."
We're just taking our time trying to do the right thing for us really... I just wish people would stop calling us selfish for that.
Also, with religious stresses being almost non-existent in the groups I run in I feel like people aren't jumping into legally-binding marriages which causes the baby thing to be pushed down the road until they find someone they want to forge a lifelong relationship with. I think it's a super good thing when people take their time to find the right relationship for them!
All-in-all I've noticed a big generational gap in thinking on this one because all I hear from tons of older relatives is "sooo when you guys getting married?" ...or even pushing for children before the fact. It feels unnatural and downright weird to field those questions and it's neigh impossible to explain "we're just taking our time to enjoy this thing and not rushing into huge commitments with marriage or kids..."
We're just taking our time trying to do the right thing for us really... I just wish people would stop calling us selfish for that.
It is pretty amazing that we are witnessing hard natural selection in action. Think of it like a disease that kills 50% of population. Those that have immunity get to pass their genes, rest die out. Sort of like pressure from smallpox.
I am really curious how this will get resolved. Just collapse of current society with the values we have, some selection of properties like “need” to have kids imprinted even harder then it is now?
Humans 100 years from now will be quite different to us it seems.
I am also quite amazed at all the kids hate. In addition to all other awesome things they allow you to relive your childhood, chance to have an incredibly close friend, you can teach them what you know, do some incredible things together. Etc. Kids are not expensive unless you make them so. They can help you with stuff too you know..(that is if you raise them to be decent people and not just spend days staring at the iPad so they don’t bother you)
I am really curious how this will get resolved. Just collapse of current society with the values we have, some selection of properties like “need” to have kids imprinted even harder then it is now?
Humans 100 years from now will be quite different to us it seems.
I am also quite amazed at all the kids hate. In addition to all other awesome things they allow you to relive your childhood, chance to have an incredibly close friend, you can teach them what you know, do some incredible things together. Etc. Kids are not expensive unless you make them so. They can help you with stuff too you know..(that is if you raise them to be decent people and not just spend days staring at the iPad so they don’t bother you)
A look at the charts tells a different story IMO.
> Birthrates fell or held steady for women of all ages except those in their early 40s. Teenagers saw the sharpest drop, with a 5% decline in their birthrate. Since peaking in 1991, the teen birthrate has fallen 73%.
Seems to me like people are waiting longer these days. We may be in a lull at the moment, but I'd expect this to pick back up barring any adverse economic conditions.
> Birthrates fell or held steady for women of all ages except those in their early 40s. Teenagers saw the sharpest drop, with a 5% decline in their birthrate. Since peaking in 1991, the teen birthrate has fallen 73%.
Seems to me like people are waiting longer these days. We may be in a lull at the moment, but I'd expect this to pick back up barring any adverse economic conditions.
The US more or less hates kids and parents. You want more kids? Our society needs to reduce health care and childcare costs while socially making the "village" more of a socially accepted setup. I have 3 generations in my house with other family nearby. I can't imagine doing it any other way. The current job environment is you should be moving to where the jobs are. Why do people need to move to sit on a computer all day is beyond me.
We had 8 years of happy marriage before having a kid, which resulted in decades of a different kind of happy marriage. I’m glad we waited and glad we became parents.
What’s not frequently discussed is how many people are unhappy having become parents. It worked out great for us but one thing I learnt was how many other parents regret that choice. There’s an understandable taboo on discussing it (you have the responsibility, and you don’t want the kids, who had no choice in the matter, to feel unwanted) but a result of the taboo is that people feel pressured into shifting their life in a way they regret.
One reason why I think it worked for us is because we waited.
What’s not frequently discussed is how many people are unhappy having become parents. It worked out great for us but one thing I learnt was how many other parents regret that choice. There’s an understandable taboo on discussing it (you have the responsibility, and you don’t want the kids, who had no choice in the matter, to feel unwanted) but a result of the taboo is that people feel pressured into shifting their life in a way they regret.
One reason why I think it worked for us is because we waited.
The Ponzi scheme that is the economy is not going to work unless there are lots of new entrants. We either need a) lots of births or b) lots of immigration.
I don't know about other people, but the idea of trying to have a child is unfathomable to me because I am very, very far away from being (economically) in a place where I feel comfortable breeding. As someone who doesn't fit the mold society wants me to be (i.e., a real contrarian but not in the hip cool SV way), there's simply no way I can participate in the one thing that being human is really about: procreation.
PS[edit]: Idiocracy is a great film and everyone should watch it.
I don't know about other people, but the idea of trying to have a child is unfathomable to me because I am very, very far away from being (economically) in a place where I feel comfortable breeding. As someone who doesn't fit the mold society wants me to be (i.e., a real contrarian but not in the hip cool SV way), there's simply no way I can participate in the one thing that being human is really about: procreation.
PS[edit]: Idiocracy is a great film and everyone should watch it.
I decided against kids a couple of years ago and I’m so glad I did. I just couldn’t see myself raising kids the way I wanted to and being able to keep my career and quality of life. And I see so many new parents just being ground down by it all, and that was before the pandemic.
Without independent wealth, I just don’t see how people do it without making some incredible sacrifices.
Without independent wealth, I just don’t see how people do it without making some incredible sacrifices.
I know this is a sci-fi scenario, but: don't overpopulation problems evaporate once space travel and colonization really kick off? In fact, at that point, it would seem that more people = better, at least if 'explore the universe' is something you think civilization should do.
This scenario seems doable/likely within a few hundred years. Less if space travel becomes more than a niche thing.
This scenario seems doable/likely within a few hundred years. Less if space travel becomes more than a niche thing.
I'd also emphasize the financial stresses of raising a child. Young people have huge financial burdens from college, live in extremely expensive cities, and the idea of adding a child into that life seems ridiculous.
Plus we have too many people in the world as it is.
Plus we have too many people in the world as it is.
I suspect 9 months from the lockdown months will see a surge in births....
I thought the reasons would be obvious. The cost of living has inflated very rapidly in the last 8 years whereas disposable income has gone down because of high rent, debt payments and stagnant real incomes.
What are they proposing? Millenials stay in school longer than ever, take on massive debts early on, pay ever increasing rent, train themselves up to a skilled worker for a livable wage, get a massive mortgage and THEN go sacrifice more by having a kid (whose education costs will be off the roof)?
What a cruel joke!
What are they proposing? Millenials stay in school longer than ever, take on massive debts early on, pay ever increasing rent, train themselves up to a skilled worker for a livable wage, get a massive mortgage and THEN go sacrifice more by having a kid (whose education costs will be off the roof)?
What a cruel joke!
I'm 39 and have three kids aged 4, 2 and 1 month old.
I've found Jeff Atwood's post on being a parent the single best blog length overview of the emotional pros and cons of having children: https://blog.codinghorror.com/on-parenthood/
I like to think about it as kids are +1,000,000 points and -900,000 points at the same time. The average is probably a slight positive but the highs are extremely high and the lows are also pretty low. This TED talk goes into this in more detail and is also great about giving honest views of being a parent: https://www.ted.com/talks/rufus_griscom_alisa_volkman_let_s_...
To make a development analogy: think of a time when you spent a huge effort trying to solve a bug in a code base you really care about. Finding that bug was incredibly frustrating and made you question why you even got into programming. Then, you find the answer and you watch your program work again and be better than it was before. This rollercoaster of emotions with a net positive outcome parallels very closely with having children.
I've found Jeff Atwood's post on being a parent the single best blog length overview of the emotional pros and cons of having children: https://blog.codinghorror.com/on-parenthood/
I like to think about it as kids are +1,000,000 points and -900,000 points at the same time. The average is probably a slight positive but the highs are extremely high and the lows are also pretty low. This TED talk goes into this in more detail and is also great about giving honest views of being a parent: https://www.ted.com/talks/rufus_griscom_alisa_volkman_let_s_...
To make a development analogy: think of a time when you spent a huge effort trying to solve a bug in a code base you really care about. Finding that bug was incredibly frustrating and made you question why you even got into programming. Then, you find the answer and you watch your program work again and be better than it was before. This rollercoaster of emotions with a net positive outcome parallels very closely with having children.
I really want to have kids, but I don’t feel financially capable of it. I have a very good, stable job with a high developer salary and costs of raising a child are just way, way, way too high to consider it.
I would at minimum need to be certain I have enough money to
- own a nice, safe home we cannot easily be evicted / removed from (eg due to landlord preferences), within a short commute from my workplace and any school / child care locations we need.
- have a personal savings rate that will allow me to fully pay for some child care options, school, and eventually college, and give my child some lump sum for an emergency fund when they move out on their own.
- have remaining savings rate to still achieve some of my personal goals that I’m unwilling to sacrifice over child care, like traveling / vacationing, continued education, and supporting my elderly parents when needed.
I cannot see a way to do this without earning probably upwards of $500k/year, so having children is just financially untenable for me.
If home prices near major tech centers went down, or my salary went up, then I’d love to. But as labor share of wealth stagnates and urban real estate is increasingly priced out for average families, it’s just impossible.
I would at minimum need to be certain I have enough money to
- own a nice, safe home we cannot easily be evicted / removed from (eg due to landlord preferences), within a short commute from my workplace and any school / child care locations we need.
- have a personal savings rate that will allow me to fully pay for some child care options, school, and eventually college, and give my child some lump sum for an emergency fund when they move out on their own.
- have remaining savings rate to still achieve some of my personal goals that I’m unwilling to sacrifice over child care, like traveling / vacationing, continued education, and supporting my elderly parents when needed.
I cannot see a way to do this without earning probably upwards of $500k/year, so having children is just financially untenable for me.
If home prices near major tech centers went down, or my salary went up, then I’d love to. But as labor share of wealth stagnates and urban real estate is increasingly priced out for average families, it’s just impossible.
No one I know wants to have a child.
The primary reason? It’s super expensive. And people my age entered the workforce right before the Great Recession, which hammered their wages and they lost years of salary growth, followed by not even a decade later, a pandemic, which will do worse.
While raising a child continues to get more expensive.
The primary reason? It’s super expensive. And people my age entered the workforce right before the Great Recession, which hammered their wages and they lost years of salary growth, followed by not even a decade later, a pandemic, which will do worse.
While raising a child continues to get more expensive.
I'll try to put this in a nonjudgemental way, and after a few revisions I'm still not happy with the tone of this comment. Sorry about that.
I find it really tough to harmonize the ideas that: 1) If you can't sell your labor to provide for yourself, you deserve to die. 2) You should have kids, and not only cost yourself $100,000 at least, and increase competition for resources.
The cynic in me thinks people want to see others fail so they can feel better about themselves, and more people competing for labor and capital decreasing the demand for labor will increase the number of people who society will deem unworthy of existence. By the odds, any random kid isn't going to change the world, they're just going to be another mouth to feed, and more than likely going to make things somewhat worse for everyone else. This is a blood-soaked all-against-all kill-and-die world, and what is a kid other than another knife pointed at you?
As far as I can tell, this seems about as rational as being proud to put out your own eyes with a red-hot grapefruit spoon.
As far as the "Kids give your life meaning" idea goes, giving one's parents meaning is a lot to put on a baby who can't even lift their own head, or anyone else for that matter. We're told all our lives that we're on our own, that anyone who needs anything from anyone else is weak and doesn't deserve existence (which is both morally wrong and incorrect). At the same time, it's supposedly okay to force a child to emotionally support you? That doesn't make any sense.
I can at least comprehend the racist argument, that it's one's responsibility to have kids to outcompete outsiders. I disagree with it for numerous reasons, but I can at least fit that idea in my head. Maybe that's a reason having kids squicks me out so much, is the only comprehensible argument to me I find repulsive and I've only heard it out of repulsive people.
Is the desire to have kids completely ruled by biological/hormonal factors, or a fear of ostracism for not "doing one's duty"? A lot of people I know and respect are good parents and don't regret having kids, but can't articulate why they did, so I'm not under the impression that parents are all cruel, broken assholes (though in my hometown there were numerous examples of this).
What is it about parenthood that isn't a curse on yourself and everyone else?
I find it really tough to harmonize the ideas that: 1) If you can't sell your labor to provide for yourself, you deserve to die. 2) You should have kids, and not only cost yourself $100,000 at least, and increase competition for resources.
The cynic in me thinks people want to see others fail so they can feel better about themselves, and more people competing for labor and capital decreasing the demand for labor will increase the number of people who society will deem unworthy of existence. By the odds, any random kid isn't going to change the world, they're just going to be another mouth to feed, and more than likely going to make things somewhat worse for everyone else. This is a blood-soaked all-against-all kill-and-die world, and what is a kid other than another knife pointed at you?
As far as I can tell, this seems about as rational as being proud to put out your own eyes with a red-hot grapefruit spoon.
As far as the "Kids give your life meaning" idea goes, giving one's parents meaning is a lot to put on a baby who can't even lift their own head, or anyone else for that matter. We're told all our lives that we're on our own, that anyone who needs anything from anyone else is weak and doesn't deserve existence (which is both morally wrong and incorrect). At the same time, it's supposedly okay to force a child to emotionally support you? That doesn't make any sense.
I can at least comprehend the racist argument, that it's one's responsibility to have kids to outcompete outsiders. I disagree with it for numerous reasons, but I can at least fit that idea in my head. Maybe that's a reason having kids squicks me out so much, is the only comprehensible argument to me I find repulsive and I've only heard it out of repulsive people.
Is the desire to have kids completely ruled by biological/hormonal factors, or a fear of ostracism for not "doing one's duty"? A lot of people I know and respect are good parents and don't regret having kids, but can't articulate why they did, so I'm not under the impression that parents are all cruel, broken assholes (though in my hometown there were numerous examples of this).
What is it about parenthood that isn't a curse on yourself and everyone else?
Society acts like having kids is a luxury good, and not a vital resource.
You can certainly argue that we need to have fewer kids, but to expect parents to fully bear the responsibility of raising them alone drives down the potential of the next generation.
You can certainly argue that we need to have fewer kids, but to expect parents to fully bear the responsibility of raising them alone drives down the potential of the next generation.
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Meanwhile, "site developers" are in a mad rush to tear down miles and miles of virgin forest and construct new cookie cutter houses they expect to sell for $300,000 each, in my city. This, in the midst of the worst unemployment crisis we've seen since the dust bowl.
Just look at the number of pets being adopted by Millennials.
Deciding to not have a kid seems like a functional downvote on the surrounding community and circumstances after the per capita growth levels off.
About the discussions for/against having children: quit justifying your choice. Most of the time the reason you think made you choose is not the real one and any argument can be countered easily, it only opens your choice to discussion even more.
Especially justifying not having children with the state of economy, politics or social issues does not stand up to scrutiny if you look back in history.
On the other hand simply and unemotionally stating "I don't want children (right now)" is as unbeatable as they come.
Especially justifying not having children with the state of economy, politics or social issues does not stand up to scrutiny if you look back in history.
On the other hand simply and unemotionally stating "I don't want children (right now)" is as unbeatable as they come.
Let's give it about a half a year, then look again.
All this coronavirus togetherness has potential to move the needle.
All this coronavirus togetherness has potential to move the needle.
Millenial here, born in mid-80s. Have seen or experienced:
> dot-com boom / bust (junior high)
> 9/11 (high school)
> War on Terror (college)
> student loans (probably for the rest of my life)
> the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the lasting economic / career effects that never goes away when you go through that (right when I graduated college)
> the divisive culture wars between old / young, rich / poor, establishment / anti-establishment, etc
> Trump as president
> Covid-19
> narcissistic boomer parents
> narcissistic boomers in all levels and areas of institutional leadership whose baseline modus operandi is incompetence, corruption, and greed
> and a lot more that stresses me out
From my perspective, the world is back-sliding - everything feels like its getting worse, not better. Economic data backs this - real wages are level while cost of living is increasing.
And you wonder why we are putting have having children?
It's because we do not know what economic optimism and financial security feel like.
> dot-com boom / bust (junior high)
> 9/11 (high school)
> War on Terror (college)
> student loans (probably for the rest of my life)
> the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the lasting economic / career effects that never goes away when you go through that (right when I graduated college)
> the divisive culture wars between old / young, rich / poor, establishment / anti-establishment, etc
> Trump as president
> Covid-19
> narcissistic boomer parents
> narcissistic boomers in all levels and areas of institutional leadership whose baseline modus operandi is incompetence, corruption, and greed
> and a lot more that stresses me out
From my perspective, the world is back-sliding - everything feels like its getting worse, not better. Economic data backs this - real wages are level while cost of living is increasing.
And you wonder why we are putting have having children?
It's because we do not know what economic optimism and financial security feel like.
Raising to record high in about 7 months.
Anyone have a non-paywall link?