Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/04/business/economy/productivity-inequality-wages.html
513 comments
The problem is that as a society we believe that people need to work 40 hours a week to survive.
We replace people with robots and retain the same output. We are more productive than ever before, yet work the same amount. Physical and uneducated work is being replaced by automation, yet we expect these people replaced by robots to find jobs to survive where there are now none.
I don't believe in Universal Basic Income though, we live in a society and it is our duty to contribute to that society. I think the answer is that we need to move towards a shorter workday. Raise wages and shorten work hours. People used to work 12 hours a day, now we work 8, why not move to a 6 hour workday? Eventually we may move into a post-scarcity society where all our basic needs are automated and work becomes an optional extra, but we're not at that point yet.
We replace people with robots and retain the same output. We are more productive than ever before, yet work the same amount. Physical and uneducated work is being replaced by automation, yet we expect these people replaced by robots to find jobs to survive where there are now none.
I don't believe in Universal Basic Income though, we live in a society and it is our duty to contribute to that society. I think the answer is that we need to move towards a shorter workday. Raise wages and shorten work hours. People used to work 12 hours a day, now we work 8, why not move to a 6 hour workday? Eventually we may move into a post-scarcity society where all our basic needs are automated and work becomes an optional extra, but we're not at that point yet.
There are two solutions: Part one, a more educated populace. Education will help those that can work in the "good jobs" get the good jobs. Part two, tax policy. Wealth needs to be redistributed so that there are masses to buy the products that the wealthy are creating.
Edit: I just watched this post go up to 10 points, down to 3 and then back to 5. Clearly this is controversial. I find it interesting that wealth redistribution is this controversial. I'm curious as to why people would be against it. Is it really just "I worked hard for it why should I give it away" or something deeper?
Edit: I just watched this post go up to 10 points, down to 3 and then back to 5. Clearly this is controversial. I find it interesting that wealth redistribution is this controversial. I'm curious as to why people would be against it. Is it really just "I worked hard for it why should I give it away" or something deeper?
I am in favor of higher taxes, but that does not solve the dignity issue at all.
Taking from the rich to give to the poor only solidifies the division between the two groups. It makes givers and takers, and there will be resentment on both sides.
We as a society need to find a way to not only feed and clothe and house everyone but to give them purpose and a voice. Paying off half the workforce doesn't do it.
Taking from the rich to give to the poor only solidifies the division between the two groups. It makes givers and takers, and there will be resentment on both sides.
We as a society need to find a way to not only feed and clothe and house everyone but to give them purpose and a voice. Paying off half the workforce doesn't do it.
We're heading toward a future where more and more is automated and there is less and less room for non-creative work. Let's face it, not everybody can be creative in a way that is lucrative. Do we really want to doom more and more of the population to a subsistence income, while more and more of the gains due to automation go to a shrinking segment of the population? I tend to think that a generous UBI is really the only sensible thing to do.
In case anybody has not read it, Mana, is a short story based on an extrapolation of this kind of rise of automation. I highly recommend it: http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
In case anybody has not read it, Mana, is a short story based on an extrapolation of this kind of rise of automation. I highly recommend it: http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm
It is splitting our entire society in two.
There are people who work in the old economy, actually doing things in the world. These people are still "tied to the land" in a sense. Their income isn't high enough to live alone, so they still maintain strong familial and neighborly bonds. Their work is physical (that doesn't mean unskilled or low paid, just that it requires physical manipulation), and requires them to physically be in a specific location at a specific time. For the most part this refers to the interior US, so housing is cheap and they generally don't have too much of a commute; they live and work in the same community. They have pride in a sense of place, and feel that they definitely "belong" somewhere because of this. They pinch pennies, compare prices, and generally are not overly wasteful. They might take a vacation once in a lifetime. These people are not poor, they just know the true meaning of a dollar because they are forced to physically work for it.
Compare this to the newly emerged technologically enabled upper middle class whose lives have become entirely abstracted from their physical existence. Our jobs are remote. Our "worksites" are mental abstractions. Our communities are digital. Our clothes are cheap and meaningless. Our connection to neighbors is nonexistent. Our physical location is arbitrary and changes based on a whim. Weekend vacations to Paris are a thing. We don't acknowledge strangers on the street, and if you do you're the insane weirdo. The result is two completely separate world views. A member of the former class simply cannot comprehend things like $14 sandwiches and $50,000 cars because it offends their sensibilities, not because they don't have the money.
There are people who work in the old economy, actually doing things in the world. These people are still "tied to the land" in a sense. Their income isn't high enough to live alone, so they still maintain strong familial and neighborly bonds. Their work is physical (that doesn't mean unskilled or low paid, just that it requires physical manipulation), and requires them to physically be in a specific location at a specific time. For the most part this refers to the interior US, so housing is cheap and they generally don't have too much of a commute; they live and work in the same community. They have pride in a sense of place, and feel that they definitely "belong" somewhere because of this. They pinch pennies, compare prices, and generally are not overly wasteful. They might take a vacation once in a lifetime. These people are not poor, they just know the true meaning of a dollar because they are forced to physically work for it.
Compare this to the newly emerged technologically enabled upper middle class whose lives have become entirely abstracted from their physical existence. Our jobs are remote. Our "worksites" are mental abstractions. Our communities are digital. Our clothes are cheap and meaningless. Our connection to neighbors is nonexistent. Our physical location is arbitrary and changes based on a whim. Weekend vacations to Paris are a thing. We don't acknowledge strangers on the street, and if you do you're the insane weirdo. The result is two completely separate world views. A member of the former class simply cannot comprehend things like $14 sandwiches and $50,000 cars because it offends their sensibilities, not because they don't have the money.
I honestly don't think there is a solution here. There will always be a large percentage of the population that don't have the motivation or capacity to learn the skills required to get "good jobs". Unless top earners are willing to sacrifice (tax reform, charity, etc), which is extremely unlikely given human nature, others will need to scrape by with low paying menial jobs. That's how it's always been.
Argue about immigration and whose country is best while they gather the torches.
Reduce the 'techlash' to another front in the forever culture war without considering how your hacker birthright is under attack.
Associate yourselves with megacorps and money, nice cars and 401(k)s.
Ally with those who hate privacy. [0]
Ally with those who practice psychological manipulation on a global scale. [1]
* Stallman warned us. [2]
* Wu warned us. [3]
* Doctorow warned us. [4]
* Schneier warned us and tried to explain it to everyone. [5]
> Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind.
> On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. [6]
[0] https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/zuckerberg-privacy...
[1] https://www.vox.com/2018/8/8/17664580/persuasive-technology-...
[2] Anything the man has written in the last 35 years
[3] https://www.amazon.com/Master-Switch-Rise-Information-Empire...
[4] https://boingboing.net/2012/01/10/lockdown.html
[5] https://www.lawfareblog.com/security-or-surveillance (He has another better article about the start of the new crypto wars but I can't find it)
[6] https://www.eff.org/cyberspace-independence
Reduce the 'techlash' to another front in the forever culture war without considering how your hacker birthright is under attack.
Associate yourselves with megacorps and money, nice cars and 401(k)s.
Ally with those who hate privacy. [0]
Ally with those who practice psychological manipulation on a global scale. [1]
* Stallman warned us. [2]
* Wu warned us. [3]
* Doctorow warned us. [4]
* Schneier warned us and tried to explain it to everyone. [5]
> Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind.
> On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. [6]
[0] https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/zuckerberg-privacy...
[1] https://www.vox.com/2018/8/8/17664580/persuasive-technology-...
[2] Anything the man has written in the last 35 years
[3] https://www.amazon.com/Master-Switch-Rise-Information-Empire...
[4] https://boingboing.net/2012/01/10/lockdown.html
[5] https://www.lawfareblog.com/security-or-surveillance (He has another better article about the start of the new crypto wars but I can't find it)
[6] https://www.eff.org/cyberspace-independence
> Adair Turner, a senior fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking in London, argues that the economy today resembles what would have happened if farmers had spent their extra income from the use of tractors and combines on domestic servants. Productivity in domestic work doesn’t grow quickly. As more and more workers were bumped out of agriculture into servitude, productivity growth across the economy would have stagnated.
That's an interesting point - maybe extra income is being spent in ways that don't encourage further growth.
Perhaps things are even worse, though: you could argue that in the past the average person used technology to make themselves more productive (a washing machine instead of hours spent washing by hand, etc.) but in recent years technological innovation is used for entertainment purposes - people use their new smartphones to play games or for social networking, etc.
That's an interesting point - maybe extra income is being spent in ways that don't encourage further growth.
Perhaps things are even worse, though: you could argue that in the past the average person used technology to make themselves more productive (a washing machine instead of hours spent washing by hand, etc.) but in recent years technological innovation is used for entertainment purposes - people use their new smartphones to play games or for social networking, etc.
How many years do people spend in Prussian-model government schools or private schools with mandated State-sponsored curriculum? 12? And the average person isn't imparted enough skills to work on anything besides a precarious assembly-line or perpetual min-wage job?
The story here is not an indictment of robots taking menial jobs; rather, it is an indictment of the atrocious education system that teaches people NOTHING of value. Maybe even less than nothing, since it propagandizes and infantilizes them.
If Walmart ran the schools and produced a bunch of know-nothings as a result, we would never hear the end of it. But somehow the State gets a pass. Even worse; they get more money!---per capital spending has increased 3x in the last 60 years with worse results.
The story here is not an indictment of robots taking menial jobs; rather, it is an indictment of the atrocious education system that teaches people NOTHING of value. Maybe even less than nothing, since it propagandizes and infantilizes them.
If Walmart ran the schools and produced a bunch of know-nothings as a result, we would never hear the end of it. But somehow the State gets a pass. Even worse; they get more money!---per capital spending has increased 3x in the last 60 years with worse results.
Is this inherently a bad thing, or does it just call for more progressive taxation that can fund services that benefit the broader set of people (transit, housing, health care, etc).
A big problem is looking at markets locally and ignoring all the people who contribute to that economy but don't live locally. Many of the tools and other resources used by those in Arizona are produced by workers elsewhere. Software might be created by people in the Bay Area. Robots may be designed and engineered by people in Germany or Japan. Etc.
When you only looking locally, you miss out on all the employment elsewhere that contributes to the local economy you're analyzing.
When you only looking locally, you miss out on all the employment elsewhere that contributes to the local economy you're analyzing.
>But automation is changing the nature of work, flushing workers without a college degree out of productive industries, like manufacturing and high-tech services, and into tasks with meager wages and no prospect for advancement.
Meanwhile wages for construction continue to grow as the labor shortage intensifies. Something doesn't add up.
Meanwhile wages for construction continue to grow as the labor shortage intensifies. Something doesn't add up.
in a sense there is a split between bodies and brains.
The bodies are competing with robotics and other physical manifestations of things that people value. This field seems to be decades ahead of the other group.
The brains are competing with AI and other informational/decision value sets.
The bodies are competing with robotics and other physical manifestations of things that people value. This field seems to be decades ahead of the other group.
The brains are competing with AI and other informational/decision value sets.
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The wage gap is real, although I feel like I see an anti ${insert_tech_company_here} article on NYT just about everyday attacking Facebook, Amazon, Apple, etc.
None of these tech companies are on a moral pedestal but also, none of these media outlets are on any moral pedestal. These are the same folks who championed the Iraq war. Look, I’m not saying there isn’t a significant wealth disparity, but I do think people should consider the NYT motives.
It couldn’t be that thry hate tech because these large tech companies are direct competitors in the advertising space?
None of these tech companies are on a moral pedestal but also, none of these media outlets are on any moral pedestal. These are the same folks who championed the Iraq war. Look, I’m not saying there isn’t a significant wealth disparity, but I do think people should consider the NYT motives.
It couldn’t be that thry hate tech because these large tech companies are direct competitors in the advertising space?
No, tech is continually rendering an ever increasing section of the population's labour economically irrelevant.
It just looks very dramatic right now because its left the lower strata and is now sweeping across the middle.
The end game is a tiny few that have acquired the keys to all of the machines through natural consolidation. The only question is, will the machines be off because there is no reason to run them because the world is full of poor sods who can't buy anything, or will we be running them because we finally figured out how to share their output.
It just looks very dramatic right now because its left the lower strata and is now sweeping across the middle.
The end game is a tiny few that have acquired the keys to all of the machines through natural consolidation. The only question is, will the machines be off because there is no reason to run them because the world is full of poor sods who can't buy anything, or will we be running them because we finally figured out how to share their output.
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I agree. I thing Americans are drifting apart because we aren't making an effort to create a social fabric that can support those less fortunate around us.
But I strongly disagree that this is a good job for the government. I think empathy exists, but we aren't going to find it in the hearts of the government or enterprises. Empathy comes from people.
But I strongly disagree that this is a good job for the government. I think empathy exists, but we aren't going to find it in the hearts of the government or enterprises. Empathy comes from people.
Even in 'Tech' companies, there are the very highly paid and the others who are not paid enough.
Execs, senior programmers, project managers make a lot.
And than there are the office support staff, customer service staff, etc that are not really in the 'Tech' company pay scale.
Execs, senior programmers, project managers make a lot.
And than there are the office support staff, customer service staff, etc that are not really in the 'Tech' company pay scale.
Regarding the whole "automation is making people lose jobs", this survey may be of interest (particularly Question B):
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/robots
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/robots
Society will just return to the age-old model of kings, clergy, and peasantry. Except this time it'll be the owners of capital and automation served by the highly educated. The rest will fight for the scraps as they have for thousands of years.
"...the use of robots explains the decline in the share of national income going into workers’ paychecks over the last three decades."
That is such horse sh*t. Share buybacks are much worse of a problem.
That is such horse sh*t. Share buybacks are much worse of a problem.
An article like this is worthless if it doesn't mention immigration, which it doesn't. It's basically a way to say "LEARN TO CODE" when the real problem is an unlimited supply of cheap labor via uncontrolled immigration. This is the same newspaper which has run "trucker shortage" stories for the last twenty years.
How do we convince the wealthy elite classes on our planet that - in order to have the highest odds of sustaining our species in a way that WE desire, it will require the strength of every human being, which will require individual investment to foster each human's strengths for the time we live in ?
Demand for Taser is up? That's not good.
in 1847, Marx wrote Wage Labour and Capital, an accessible pamphlet that made the prediction that over time, the middle classes will be squeezed out of prosperity and the majority of people's wages will trend downwards, until they hit a fundamental low point: the minimum amount required to reproduce the next generation of workers. the key point is that this is completely endemic to capitalism, which is characterized by capital owners having diametrically opposed and competing material interests to workers.
we have seen surges of militant class struggle reverse this trend at specific points in history, but in 2019, with decades of dormancy of class struggle leading up to the present, it's happening again.
abolishing private ownership of capital and democratically allocating society's productive resources is the only solution.
we have seen surges of militant class struggle reverse this trend at specific points in history, but in 2019, with decades of dormancy of class struggle leading up to the present, it's happening again.
abolishing private ownership of capital and democratically allocating society's productive resources is the only solution.
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I think tech workers should be worried too. If you don't have the skill set to automate someone's job away, yours will likely go away as well. IE: If you ain't building the robots, you're job's in danger.
This guy will probably be feted across academia for his insight, even though it’s fundamentally the same argument made in The Bell Curve that gets Charles Murray banned from college campuses. Yes, the cognitive elite is a thing and no, they don’t work at Walmart. There is no answer to this problem, either.
Maybe if the "favored class" Americans took the bus or went to the laundromat like I did for years they'd want poor people to do well too.